The extensive published discussion of potential ecological impacts of introduced genetic sequences and genetically engineered organisms has lacked a quantified delineation of the critical questions for the estimation of risk. Ultimately, the ecological risk assessment of introduced gene sequences is the application of evolution, population genetics, and ecology to risk estimation and decision making. This paper provides a framework for the estimation of risk due to introduced sequences in bacteria, and the principles should also hold for many diploid species. Horizontal genetic exchange poses new challenges for ecological risk assessment. Plasmid transfer can occur without any impacts, although the sequence can become ubiquitous in the population. Conversely, the introduction of a plasmid can change the dynamics of the host population, potentially altering the population minimum and maximum characteristics of its dynamics. Because of genetic exchange, new genetic information is unlikely to be constrained among one type of prokaryote. An example of the use of the model is given using genetic exchange data from a series of published soil microcosm experiments. The model demonstrates the increase in plasmid frequency when using experimentally derived conjugation frequencies. Application of these results to ongoing discussion of the risks of genetically engineered organisms is presented. Particular attention is paid to the transfer of genetic material and the resultant changes in host population dynamics.